Modelling of the markets for green certificates in Nordic countries

- Beslutningstøtte basert på langsiktig fundamentale markedsanalyser

The system works as follows: Green certificates are issued to producers of renewable electricity for each MWh produced, while consumers must buy certificates for a share of their electricity consumption or pay a penalty. Since future certificate prices are unknown and the certificates can be stored to future years, the participants in the Nordic electricity market need tools to calculate the optimal strategy for their trade with certificates. Large hydropower producers will also be affected since this system will influence electricity prices.

The objective of the project is to include green certificates in SAMPLAN, which is an optimisation and market simulation model that can be applied to the same problem and dataset as EMPS (Samkjørinsgsmodellen). The model will be used to forecast prices for green certificates and to study their impact on electricity prices in the Nordic countries. It can also be used to study the consequence of different market designs for green certificates or different investment paths for new generation.